Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

974
FXUS61 KALY 151041
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
641 AM EDT Fri Aug 15 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Lower humidity yet still warm today under sunny skies before
humidity levels rise this weekend as we remain very warm. While
there will be a few isolated to widely showers or storms
tomorrow, especially in the higher terrain, confidence is higher
for areas of showers and thunderstorms on Sunday, especially in
the afternoon, as boundary moves through the region. We turn
much cooler and more comfortable early next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Key Message:

 - Temperatures remain above normal this weekend as humidity
   levels turn uncomfortable. There is a 50-75% chance of
   reaching or exceeding 90 degrees for portions of the Hudson
   Valley from Albany to Poughkeepsie.

Discussion:

High pressure and a building upper level ridge providing
subsidence will give us plenty of sunshine today. With our
boundary from yesterday well to our south, northerly flow will
supply us with a much drier air mass with PWATs falling near or
under 1" (especially north of I-90) resulting in much more
comfortable humidity levels. Temperatures remain quite warm as a
dry forecast soundings show deep boundary layer mixing ensuing
and with 850hPa isotherms still +14C to +16C, expecting highs to
rise into the mid to upper 80s. Clouds return tonight as
southeasterly flow and weak warm air advection develops in
response to our subtle sfc boundary retrograding back northward.
CAMs show a few isolated showers developing in the vicinity of
the boundary in the eastern Catskills and mid-Hudson Valley so
increased POPs to slight chance tonight in these areas.

With the weak boundary slowly pushing northward tomorrow and
southwesterly flow maintaining weak warm air advection in the
low and mid-levels, humidity levels creep upwards again. In
addition, a very weak incoming trough aloft interacting with
the boundary within the increasingly muggy and warm environment
will support slight and chance POPs for isolated to widely
scattered showers and thunderstorms. POPs were focused mainly
from the I-90 corridor southward, especially in higher terrain
areas including eastern and northern Catskills. Given PWATs
rising back towards 1.5", any storm can produce heavy downpours.
While precipitation activity diminishes Saturday night, we
remain quite warm and muggy overnight.

Medium confidence continues that Sunday will feature an
increased potential (30 - 60% chance) for showers and
thunderstorms. Guidance indicates that a weak sfc low tracking
up the Saint Lawrence River Valley will usher in an initial warm
front Sunday morning resulting in a few isolated showers or
storms. Then, an even warmer and moist sector overspreads the
region in its wake leading to quite warm high temperatures.
Probabilistic guidance continues to show 50-75% chance for
highs reaching or exceeding 90 in valley areas (highest from
Albany to Poughkeepsie). Given higher dew points, some of our
mid-Hudson Valley areas will need to be monitored as it nears
heat advisory criteria (around 95F). Latest HeatRisk shows
moderate risk for heat-related impacts here. Then, we will
closely monitor a pre-frontal trough/wind shift boundary
tracking northwest to southeast during the afternoon hours.
Given that the warm/moist environment looks to support an
unstable environment with deep layer shear vectors 25-30kts
oriented parallel to the boundary, chances for showers and
thunderstorms increase for the afternoon hours with a linear
storm mode expected. Latest CIPS analog guidance shows increased
probabilities for severe weather ranging 10-30%; however,
marginal lapse in the 700-500hPa and 850-500hPa layers under
6C/km keeps confidence low for widespread severe weather. In
addition, the highest mid-level moisture and strongest forcing
looks displaced to our north and east in New England which lends
uncertainty to storm and shower coverage in our forecast area.

After any showers/storms exit Sunday evening, northerly winds
in the wake of the boundary will usher in a much more comfortable
air mass for the new work week. In fact, overnight temperatures
Sunday and especially Monday night are forecast to drop into
the 50s with daytime highs Monday through Wednesday peaking in
the 70s. Our boundary looks to stall over the mid-Atlantic as
the cooler Canadian air mass persists over the Northeast.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Through 12z Saturday...Any fog/mist at GFL early this morning
quickly dissipates by 12z. Then, VFR conditions with just a few mid
and high clouds prevail at all terminals through today into tonight.
Tonight, low stratus is expected to develop from south to north.
Highest likelihood of MVFR/fuel alternate cigs is at POU/PSF, with
lower confidence on whether or not low stratus becomes widespread
enough for BKN cigs at ALB/GFL late tonight. Patchy fog/mist could
also develop late tonight at GFL with IFR or lower vsbys, especially
if low stratus remains to the south. Winds will generally be at 5 kt
today from the N/NE, veering to the SE this evening/tonight still at
5kt or less.

Outlook...

Saturday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Sunday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA...TSRA.
Sunday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Monday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.
Wednesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Chance of SHRA.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...None.
NY...None.
MA...None.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
DISCUSSION...Speciale
AVIATION...Main