Brattleboro, Vermont 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

553
FXUS61 KALY 102119
AFDALY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
National Weather Service Albany NY
419 PM EST Sun Nov 10 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Increasing clouds today along with increased haze from wildfire
smoke before rain showers overspread the area this evening.
Breezy and mild tomorrow before a cold front front Monday night ushers
in much cooler air and windy conditions on Tuesday. Then we
turn drier for the rest of the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM MONDAY MORNING/...

Rain showers initially arrive in the Mohawk Valley, western
Adirondacks, and northern/eastern Catskill early this evening
(4PM to 7PM) before reaching our Hudson Valley areas including
the Greater Capital District by 6PM to 9PM. Showers then enter
into western New England 9PM to 12AM. Steady showers through
Midnight but then turn lighter as the southwest low and mid-
level jet strengthens to 40kts resulting in downsloping off the
Catskills that will reduce shower coverage and intensity. POPs
this evening range 60 - 90% and then trend downwards to 25 - 30%
after Midnight along and east of the Catskills as showers are
expected to diminish. Overall rainfall amounts have reduced a
bit compared to the previous forecast but still generally
expected to range 0.10 - 0.25 inch with less than 30%
probability for rain in the Hudson Valley to exceed 0.20 inch.
On the other hand, there is greater than 60% chance for rain
amounts to exceed 0.20 inch in the western/southern Adirondacks
and along the southern Greens and Taconics from upslope
effects..

Otherwise temperatures tonight will trend upwards as the warm
sector overspread the region with many warming into the 40s to
even near 50 by early Monday. Southwesterly winds will also
remain breezy overnight sustained 5-15kts with occasional gusts
up to 20-25kts.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
Widespread rain showers will exit to our east by Monday morning
but breezy west-southwest winds will maintain a fetch off Lake
Ontario supporting continuing lake effect rain showers reaching
the western Adirondacks. Elsewhere, west to southwest winds
quickly turn breezy with gusts reaching up to 25 to 30mph,
strongest down the Mohawk Valley, Capital District into western
MA. A warm air mass remains in a place aloft and deep boundary
layer mixing will support mild daytime temperatures rising 10 to
15 degrees above normal for mid-November into the low to mid 60s
in the valley. Cooler in the upper 40s in the western Adirondacks.
Otherwise, morning clouds will give way to partly to mostly sunny
skies. Most sunshine south of I-90 away from the lake effect response.

Yet another compact and potent shortwave swings into the
Northeast Monday night. Given that the shortwave originates in
Alberta, Canada, a much colder air mass will pour into the
Northeast behind its associated cold front. Northwest winds in
the wake of the front will also become quite windy as rapid
pressure rises enhance the isallobaric wind. Probabilistic
guidance shows 50 - 90% chance that wind gusts exceed 30mph down
the Mohawk Valley into the Capital District with the terrain
areas 1000ft or higher greater than 75% probability. However,
probabilities for greater than 40mph wind gusts are much less
and limited to just the highest peaks of the Catskills so wind
advisories are not anticipated. Besides the gusty winds, the
incoming cold air mass will also reinvigorate the lake effect
response with rain showers changing to snow showers in the
western and southern Adirondacks overnight. However, only a
coating to a few tenths of snow at most are expected in the
western and southern Adirondacks. Elsewhere, just some rain
showers (under a tenth of an inch of QPF) can be expected as
the true cold front sweeps through overnight.

Chilly and gusty into Tuesday morning with 30 to 70% probability
for wind gusts to exceed 30mph mainly down the Mohawk Valley
into the Capital Region, Taconics, and western MA. A 1035hPa
Canadian high building into the Northeast on Tuesday will
support increasing sun and as the pressure gradient weakens
through the afternoon, winds gradually diminish. With a much
colder air mass in place, highs will struggle to rise out of the
40s throughout the region. With a very dry air mass also pushing
overhead (PWATs dropping towards 0.2" or 1 to 2 standard deviations
below normal per the NAEFS), conditions may favor fire spread.
See our Fire Weather Discussion for details. Clear skies and
weakening winds Tuesday night will support ideal radiational
cooling and a chilly night. Overnight lows drop well into the
20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Those wishing for a soaking rainfall to help appease the ongoing
precipitation deficit will not find relief in the long term.
Large scale high pressure will dominate the Northeast Wednesday
into Thursday providing continued dry and seasonable cool
weather. While we were monitoring a shortwave for Thursday,
latest guidance has trended drier keeping this shortwave
shunted to our south and sheared out thanks to a coastal low
retrograding back into the Canadian Martie. POPs were thus
trended down to just slight chance for Thursday. Upper level
ridging then regain controls heading into the weekend
maintaining our dry pattern. Otherwise, seasonably cool
temperatures mid- week trend slightly above normal by Friday
into the weekend as southwest return flow becomes established
aloft.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR conditions outside the smoke from wildfires lowering
visibilities to 2-3SM at KALB will continue until 23Z today, as
light rain will be moving into all the TAF sites 23Z/SUN to 02Z/MON
with cigs/vsbys lowering to low VFR/MVFR levels.  The low-levels
should saturate quickly with widespread MVFR conditions with the
stratiform rain shield ahead of the wave and frontal boundary.  Some
spotty IFR conditions will be possible initially. However, after
06Z/MON some lower stratus in the IFR range with continued light
rain or drizzle may materialize at all the TAF sites.  We were most
confident to place IFR cigs at KGFL/KPSF.  KPOU and KALB may also
have those IFR cigs in the 500-900 ft AGL range and they may need to
added later. The cigs/vsbys should rise to MVFR levels in the 1-3
kft AGL 12Z-15Z/MON.

The winds will be southerly at 8-12 KT this afternoon with some
gusts to 20 KT.  South/southeast winds 4-10 KT will continue tonight
and shift the south/southwest 10-15 KT tomorrow late morning gusting
to 20-25 KT at KALB/KPSF.

LLWS was added to KPSF from 00Z-09Z/MON as the 2 kft AGL winds will
be around 40KT and the sfc winds under 10 KT.  Additional LLWS
groups may be needed tonight at additional TAF sites.

Outlook...

Monday Night: Moderate Operational Impact. Breezy. Chance of SHRA.
Tuesday: Moderate Operational Impact. Windy With Gusts To 32 kts. NO SIG WX.
Tuesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Wednesday Night: No Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Thursday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.
Thursday Night: Low Operational Impact. NO SIG WX.
Friday: Low Operational Impact. Slight Chance of SHRA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Relative humidity values currently around 30-40% and southwest winds
gusting around 20-25 MPH will improve over the next several hours
with the sun setting and increasing rain chances. Latest deterministic
guidance depicts around 0.10-0.25 inches of total rainfall tonight,
which should be enough to provide some short-term relief to our
persistent dry conditons. After collaboration with MA/CT state
officials and surrounding offices, the Red Flag Warnings will be
allowed to expire this evening, though a special weather statement
will remain in place for Monday for Berkshire county.

The next period to monitor for more areawide fire weather concerns
will be the middle of the work week. The latest forecast shows
minimum relative humidity values around 35-45% Tuesday, with values
dropping to around 30-40% Wednesday. Winds will also be breezy out
of the northwest Tuesday following a frontal passage, with gusts
around 20-30 MPH during the afternoon. Those with interests should
continue to monitor the latest forecast information.

Remember to follow wildfire safety which includes obeying burn bans,
avoiding activities with open flames or sparks, and keeping vehicles
off of dry grass.

&&

.ALY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CT...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for CTZ001-013.
NY...None.
MA...Red Flag Warning until 6 PM EST this evening for MAZ001-025.
VT...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...Speciale
NEAR TERM...Speciale
SHORT TERM...Speciale
LONG TERM...Speciale
AVIATION...Wasula
FIRE WEATHER...Speck